I am no election pollster but just trying to make an analysis from a journalistic point of view.
The Obuasi constituency was divided into East and West prior to the 2012 elections. Before the division, the incumbent Member of Parliament, Hon Edward Michael Ennin lost the Party primaries to Hon Kwaku Kwarteng who won with 345 votes as against the incumbent’s 344 votes.
The embattled Member of Parliament who wasn’t the delegate’s favourite quickly contested in the new constituency, Obuasi East with Dr. Patrick Boakye Yiadom, a physician, Mr. Enoch Afoakwa, a private business man and the party’s secretary and the only lady among them was Adelaide Achiaa.
At the end of the keenly contested elections, Mr. Edward Ennin had 151 votes, Dr. Boakye Yiadom had 207 votes, Enoch Afoakwa had 57 votes’ whiles Adelaide Achiaa had 0. The three terms MP lost to the Bryant Mission Hospital Medical Superintendent, Dr. Boakye Yiadom with 56 vote’s difference.
The Obuasi constituency’s Parliamentary seat became a stronghold of the NPP after the NDC’s Mr. Peter Ken Owusu’s exit in 1996 that saw Hon Anthony Bright Boadi-Mensah taking over.
The days of party strongholds are passing slowly, no party can beat the chest and claim a certain constituency as their sole property. The NPP’s Presidential Candidate, Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffu-Addo after his tour in the Volta Region, saw the President who have been there already going back there to neutralize his campaign messages. That tells you even the NDC is afraid they might loose some seats or even the Presidential election in the Volta Region.
Back to the Obuasi East constituency, Hon Edward Michael Ennin pulled 24,212 votes representing (59.08%), Alhaji Abdul-Lateef Madjoud of the NDC had 15,381 votes representing (37.53%) and the first timer and young politician Frank Aboagye Danyansah had 899 votes (2.19%).
Mr. Edward Ennin should’ve had over 60% votes but the ‘Obuasi is our stronghold’ perception doubled with complacency had a dire effect on him. Alahji Abdul, was the District Chief Executive for Adansi South but came to contest for the NDC and had 37.53%, with just 22 plus percent difference; he made an impact.
Frank Aboagye Danyansah’s (2.19%) was a shock to all political analyzers.
2016 ELECTIONS (Why Dr. Boakye Yiadom must work harder)
Dr. Boakye Yiadom is contesting with the Obuasi Municipal Chief Executive, Mr. Richard Ofori Agyemang-Boadi and Frank Aboagye Danyansah, Chief Executive Officer of Danny Wise Estates and Construction Limited.
If Alhaji Abdul-Lateef who was a District Chief Executive in a nearby District could pull (37.53%) votes, then it wouldn’t be a cool chop contesting a sitting MCE who can boast of infrastructure development and other things unlike Alahji Lateef who couldn’t campaign on any projects aside that of late President Mills but had 15,381votes;or contesting Frank Danyansah whose door to door campaign is seen and heard by the media doubled with some donations to schools and other places.
Secondly, Dr. Boakye Yiadom hardly goes on any local radio station to sell out his policies, whiles the MCE and Frank Danyansah are almost on all the radio stations in and outside Obuasi.
We have few days to the elections but Dr. Boakye Yiadom can make some changes with some radio appearances to reach more voters.
Frank Aboagye Danyansah on the other side is doing all what he can to increase his 2.19% votes which make it very difficult for Dr. Boakye Yiadom to maintain Edward Ennin’s 59.08% or add more.
Most people tell me Social media can’t change a voter’s mind but trust me, Ghana is getting to that stage where social media is a determinant in winning an election.
Hardly do we see Dr. Boakye Yiadom on the popularly Facebook.com unlike his counterpart, Frank Danyansah who is always posting his policies and answering to questions from opponents’ and fans.
The Municipal Chief Executive has a personal account but hardly post anything about on his policies.
The Obuasi East constituency will be one of the constituencies that will shock Ghanaians with results that will come out after December 7th.
It was very clear to predict a win for Edward Ennin when he met Alhaji Lateef and Frank Aboagye Danyansah but very difficult to predict same for Dr. Boakye Yiadom, Hon Richard Ofori Agyemang Boadi or Frank Aboagye Danyansah.
Let the good people of Obuasi decide.